Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 24.318803 25.791259 27.356508 29.152962 31.168835 33.374327 35.988104
2025-12-21 22.215915 24.249223 26.527663 29.301474 32.632159 36.564515 41.657281
2025-12-28 21.056642 23.408807 26.136290 29.591904 33.945311 39.386547 46.951203
2026-01-04 19.730149 22.206399 25.145603 28.975187 33.970671 40.488900 50.076121
2026-01-11 19.178122 21.858697 25.118067 29.492367 35.418695 43.535972 56.299239
2026-01-18 18.600593 21.420683 24.918921 29.733085 36.474283 46.121580 62.285141
2026-01-25 17.800761 20.646012 24.224787 29.237856 36.426989 47.056544 65.767524
2026-02-01 17.074858 19.922529 23.546499 28.700321 36.246094 47.731727 68.893354
2026-02-08 16.179877 18.939111 22.472864 27.540173 35.044927 46.656623 68.623710
2026-02-15 16.006251 18.884019 22.627534 28.107479 36.462421 49.948628 77.339649
2026-02-22 15.752843 18.707881 22.602764 28.405735 37.480368 52.697617 85.761691
2026-03-01 15.185928 18.089536 21.940028 27.724462 36.879785 52.519349 87.679088
2026-03-08 14.371761 17.174154 20.914232 26.581987 35.668515 51.504398 88.479274
2026-03-15 13.996129 16.844618 20.701235 26.662699 36.508106 54.501283 100.677679
2026-03-22 13.713567 16.621541 20.615714 26.915587 37.646246 58.289615 117.451875
2026-03-29 13.228448 16.095006 20.063243 26.392195 37.361002 59.098802 125.814278
2026-04-05 13.053691 15.991688 20.116643 26.830435 38.847735 64.062694 153.320680
2026-04-12 12.828298 15.804803 20.033133 27.033980 39.918764 68.377272 184.626237
2026-04-19 12.457450 15.395153 19.595140 26.614951 39.737638 69.593330 203.108283
2026-04-26 12.101031 14.993831 19.152255 26.159133 39.436230 70.447802 221.590536
2026-05-03 11.631102 14.415187 18.419435 25.171813 37.983515 67.985427 215.495296
2026-05-10 11.549697 14.396473 18.540345 25.655215 39.574912 74.243379 288.636127
2026-05-17 11.417211 14.297406 18.531081 25.908892 40.720398 79.664664 386.644738